Pundits revise UK house price predictions

Pundits had forecast that, at best, house prices would tread water in 2013. Now they are rising and experts are scrambling to revise their predictions predictions prices are up 4% already.
Here is what the the experts predicted for 2013 (source: The Guardian)

Halifax
The bank said in December that prices were likely to end 2013 "close to where they begin", and forecast anything between a 2% fall and a 2% rise. The mortgage lender's chief economist, Martin Ellis, now admits that the rate of house price inflation may exceed that by the end of the year, although he says he has no imminent plans to formally change his forecast.
He says the stronger than anticipated growth was the result of numerous factors: signs of improvement in both the economy and housing markethave boosted confidence, a shortage of properties for sale, and the Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. 

RICS
Rics forecast a 2% rise in prices over the course of 2013. Simon Rubinsohn, Rics chief economist, was optimistic about the impact of Funding for Lending, but felt the uncertain outlook for the economy would keep a lid on prices. "As it turns out, Funding for Lending has been increasingly effective in lowering the cost of secured lending while increasing the availability of housing-related loans," he says now. "On top of that, economic newsflow has strengthened a little more than envisaged, and the government has also introduced Help to Buy." As a result, he says the 2% headline forecast appears to be "on the low side", and Rics is set to push this up "to the 4% area".

Nationwide
The building society's chief economist, Robert Gardner, said at the start of the year that he expected the housing market to "be characterised by low levels of activity" in 2013, "with prices remaining flat or modestly lower". He admits growth "has been a little stronger than we might have expected", but at 1.9% – the current annual rate of price growth – it is not far from his prediction, and cautions that a higher figure than that in July would be a result of prices falling in the same month last year. As for the rest of 2013, Gardner says: "We knew Funding for Lending and Help to Buy would provide support for the market, but if things like employment and wages pick up, they could lead to things being stronger than expected." Housing supply will be key, he says, and there are few signs that it is improving: new-build completions for England were down by 8% in the first part of the year. "If we get more demand but no more supply then there is a danger that will push up prices further," he says.

Centre for Economics and Business Research

The CEBR predicted prices would rise by 0.8% in 2013 to an average of £219,000. It revised that up to 1.4% in April and is just about to make a "small upward revision", although at the time of writing it wouldn't disclose exactly how much.Its economist Daniel Solomon says there are four reasons for the revision: previous forecasts had not taken into account Help to Buy; the Office for National Statistics house price estimates over the last quarter were marginally higher than CEBR had expected; the general economic environment had improved; and the depreciation in the pound this year was making UK houses in prime London more affordable for foreign buyers.

Knight Frank

The upmarket estate agent, was talking late last year of the longest housing market recovery on record, and predicted a 1% fall in prices this year. In June it revised its forecast upwards, saying Help to Buy had already improved buyer confidence, along with the prospect of continued low interest rates. "We see prices rising by 3% this year, just slightly above inflation," says head of UK residential research, Gráinne Gilmore.

Savills

Estate agent, predicted a 0.5% increase across the UK in 2013. Six months in, Lucian Cook, director of residential research, says prices could rise by up to 5% this year. "There are signs of improved sentiment. For example, the Rics survey shows a big uptick in new-buyer inquiries and a gap between that and supply. When that happens, prices are pushed up," he says. 

Rightmove

The property website, said "the slow recovery" would continue through 2013, forecasting a 2% rise in asking prices in England and Wales over the year, assisted by greater competition among lenders. In its latest house price report it says that across England and Wales asking prices have risen by 10.4% in the first six months of the year. Every region has seen growth, from the East Midlands up by 5.8%, to the south-east where sellers are asking for 14.8% more than at the start of the year.

Its director, Miles Shipside, says he now expects asking prices to end the year up 4%.